Lalu may prove to  be savior of BJP in Bihar elections

Bihar election is at the last leg and many forecasters have stopped making any announcements as they are waiting for 8^th November with baited breath. I may be treading on a risky path but in my past experience I was proved only wrong in Delhi elections.

Let me first explain that all surveys are faulty as the method of coversion of votes is a black magic. Many times wrong questions are asked. In Bihar Nitish has done well to captures already hostile media that was waiting to see when Modi gets trounced. As a result of it many surveys start with no face of Modi and how popular is Nitish. It needed no survey to know and announce that Nitish has been most popular leader but the real issue was in spite of that will his party win? The real issue went sidetracked in the din of Nitish Nitish chanting by media. The survey results also showed in half that he is winning and another half that NDA is winning. After second phase many started anticipating problems with Modi. No doubt Modi faced an uphill task as he was fighting clever and complex leaders of a state that has unfathomable labyrinth of castes and classes. The perpetuation of caste politics was also promoted by the political parties in the past since independence by giving in to caste consideration without trying to change the scenario to more urgent issues of development. Nitish to some extent and Modi with all his vigor tried to bring issues economic backwardness and hence need for job creation and education to the fore. Nevertheless NDA too catered to Caste politics as Manjhi , Kushwaha, and Paswan were out and out caste representatives. Lalu was blatantly Yadva- Muslim formula inventor and followed it diligently. It is, however, doubtful if he succeeded as the issues of dire needs of education health jobs and power supply were too real to be ignored. Forecasting of such an imbroglio is a difficult job.

Modi faced perhaps a herculean task that was made worse by his own colleagues and party rather than outside opposition. His own supporters uttered words and made statements  that directly hurt his compaign. Worse his past colleagues like Shatrugan Sinha,Yashwant Sinha, Arun Shori and others who were frustrated due to being deprived of a Ministers. Job made ridiculous noises at the time of electioneering. Again unnecessary and untimely debate on beef and reservation was not needed but no one bothered for his difficult challenge and their party interest. One wonders what were those ensuring party discipline were doing.

Of all Lalu Prasad had maximum negative factors in his score. Consider these:

1.     He was convicted for corruption and was not able to fight

2.     His wife and daughter lost elections in Parliamentary polls recently

3.     His past record of Jungle raj stuck to him and was vigorously propagated by Modi

4.     He openly complained of thin attendance in his rallies

5.     His son Tapasvi  a candidate was hounded out of booth by the people and shown on Channels

6.     He mostly behaved as a clown rather than a responsible leader and made intemperate remarks about Moduva as he called Modi in derogatory manner.

7.     He openly appealed to caste politics

8.     Empirical research shows his jungle raj no one wants in Bihar and in fact his association with Nitish damaged Nitish too who accepted him in his dream of becoming CM if not PM

Considering this it is not foreseen if he will score much and he has bargained for 101 seats he will get very low number. Whatever channels may forecast considering his caste base he is likely to be greatest loser. After all with his caste base his wife and daughter loost too. That shows the mood of Bihar. His loss will be major gain of NDA and poses a hope for them.

If previous Parliamentary polls are any indication the same converted to MLA constituencies gives figure of 188 to NDA which is comfortable majority and best performance.  But taking into account that local matters differ from national issues and many developments have taken place in the intervening period, I have done careful assessment and that shows NDA will get around 123 in worst scenario and 152 in best scenario.

Let us wait for 8^th to see the final outcome. I trust I will not be as wrong as some surveys might turn out in the end.

Bus Stand

First passenger: Thieves are so bold in Himachal that they burgled the house of CM. Why are they not trying PM house next?

Second Passenger: Perhaps they are afraid that he may not start with them Choron pe charcha.

--Prof N.K.Singh former Chairman International Airports Authority of India