Defeat of Development and Triumph of communalism in Bihar

No one including all surveys and channels could forecast correctly the outcome of Bihar election that JDU+ will get two third majorities in its victory. Some Channels even announced victory of BJP+ while the counting was on. Forenoon what showed BJP’s lead turned just upside down in the afternoon. Only one survey AXIS fore cast that JDU+ will get 170 but it was brushed aside and not aired. I was also proved wrong and my estimates went hay wire. It is time to rethink and reinvent the system of forecasting as it is a major disaster in forecasting. Even in USA there is debate on the ways of increasing accuracy and phone surveys are more and more becoming difficult as people have switched over from land line to mobile. Whatever be now damned forecasts the fact is that the JDU+ is in power and has decisively won  and virtually butchered NDA.The greatest shock is that Lalu Prasad who is convict in corruption case and not able to fight election, has virtually emerged as the king maker since has  got more seats than JDU who could get 71 while in previous elections they had 117. It is lalu who scored phenomenally against all expectation and my in accurate but logical thinking that he should lose heavily. On the other hand he got maximum. It is not a rational vote but it is effective vote and the dream of Bihar to achieve new hights of development stands demolished by the caste and communal deivide. It is national loss.

No doubt BJP made disatserous mistakes. Important leaders of the party made statements harming Modi in the run for victory in Bihar. There  is no doubt therfe was internal sabotage in the party itself. But it was weaknesss of a disciplined party that no one bothered for the leadership and indulged in total nonsense . If they were trying to match the opponents and outdo Lalu they failed, as Lalu could go nastier and carried the rustic card to justify whatever he did. Being an astute politician he used Bhagwat” remark about review of reservation to target NDA and to emphatically frighten Biharis that reservation is in danger. This was lethal threat for the masses and BJP tried to explain it away but no one listened. He was wrongly being charged for remark about beef eating that went to fetch him all Muslim votes .Amit Shah’ s Diwali in Pakistan if they lost  utterance added more Muslim votes  to kitty of Lalu. Loose cannons of BJP became fodder for lalu who too was known to use filthy language but he found more of it  in enemies camp that people did not digest.

On the results day event was general conclusion that Bhagwat+ combined yadav -Muslim votes brought down the citadel of Narender Modi.  Added to this Modi himself gave up corruption free development debate to polarizing communal attempt by invoking Muslim reservation voiced by so called secular parties. This did not get him Hindu votes but more Muslim votes went to his opponent. Hindu votes did not polarize that was being attempted by beef posters as that was stuck in caste matrix.  Lalu successfully sold backward and forward debate using Bhagwat and other issues. A corrupt leader on bail, and who had brought jungle raj to Bihar, became the victorious king maker. To quote apt comment of Tavleen Singh It was victory of past over future. The agenda of good goverfnence and corruption free development got no champions as even Modi  gave in to communalism.

The result of election may be touted against Modi rhetoric but in any country where democracy is strong pluralistic paradigm prevails. Earlier governments in centre did not have their rule in all states and opposition regional parties reigned earlier too but climate is vitiated by debased debate this time and it needs strong communication of facts to clean the rumor full climate, Even In United States all states are not won by the President’ party but they have strong Constitutional base to continue without much road blocks . In our country we will have to rethink and rightly the thinking public is now talking of Presidential system and it is time to change the system where a determined opponent group does not block the functioning of the Parliament. But even if Modi is blocked on passing the bills inspite of massive national verdict in his favor there is enough in the ambit of government that central government can do to take the country forward. BJP must reinvent its strategic orientation. To me there are two lessons: First that democracy and pluralism have won but the system to change existing blocking of national body functioning by minority needs rethinking of model of governance. Second lesson is that Corruption free development must continue in the spheres where it is still amply possible and it should take the centre stage even if the jolt in one state should not deter reforms and progress.(Prof NKSingh ex chairman IAA